Davis v. New York City Housing Authority

This case returns to us following remands in 1999 and 2000 to the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York, Robert W. Sweet, Judge, for further findings, clarification, and supplementation of the record in connection with its issuance of injunctions prohibiting defendant New York City Housing Authority ("NYCHA" or the "Authority") from implementing proposed changes in its method of complying with a 1992 consent decree (the "Consent Decree" or "Decree") settling actions alleging that, in accepting tenants for public housing in New York City, the Authority had discriminated against Latinos and African Americans on the basis of race. The district court found that NYCHA's proposed introduction of a working-family preference into the tenant acceptance procedures would cause a significant perpetuation of past segregation at 20 NYCHA low-income housing projects, and in 1999 it permanently enjoined NYCHA from implementing that preference at those projects. NYCHA appeals, contending principally that the district court erred (a) in its view of what constitutes segregation, and (b) in finding that segregation would be significantly perpetuated. For the reasons that follow, we affirm with respect to 14 of the housing projects, and we reverse with respect to the remaining six.

The factual background of this litigation has been chronicled in several opinions, familiarity with which is assumed. The prior proceedings are summarized below.

NYCHA, an independent public corporation created by New York State Law, operates 322 public housing projects in New York City. In the early 1990s, parallel actions were brought by the United States and by plaintiffs Pauline Davis et al. on behalf of themselves and others similarly situated, alleging that NYCHA had engaged in discrimination in violation of, inter alia, 42 U.S.C. §§ 1981, 1982, and 1983 and the Fair Housing Act of 1968, as amended, 42 U.S.C. § 3601 et seq. ("FHA"), by assigning applicants for public housing to particular housing projects on the basis of race. NYCHA ultimately acknowledged that it had engaged in, inter alia, "racial steering" (NYCHA Memorandum of Law in Support of the Fairness and Adequacy of the Davis Settlement and the Entry of the Consent Decree and in Response to Comments Submitted by Interested Persons, dated October 30, 1992 ("NYCHA Memorandum Supporting Consent Decree" or "NYCHA Memorandum"), at 21), and it stated that "[t]he Housing Authority concluded that the complaint had merit" (id. at 22).

The parties agreed to settle both actions in 1992 by entering into the Consent Decree. See Davis v. New York City Housing Authority, 1992 WL 420923 (S.D.N.Y. Dec.31, 1992) ("Davis I"). In urging the district court to enter the Decree, NYCHA admitted that

[t]he Housing Authority engaged in a number of policies and practices that had the effect of discriminating against Black and Hispanic applicants. Because the Housing Authority was convinced that these policies were wrong, and indeed in most instances were stopped well before the lawsuits were brought, the Housing Authority believed that the responsible course was to settle these suits to remedy these past practices in as fair a manner as possible.

(NYCHA Memorandum at 21.) Describing "a few of these policies" (id.), the NYCHA Memorandum stated, inter alia, that the Authority in 1960 adopted an "integration program" whose "racial steering component ... continued at a few predominantly white projects until January, 1988, resulting in a higher proportion of whites than would have resulted from a race neutral admissions policy" (id.), and that until 1990, some NYCHA "employees would expedite applications and send them to projects to which they would not otherwise have been sent[,] [o]ften ... favor[ing] white applicants who sought an apartment at a predominantly white project" (id. at 22).

Following a fairness hearing, then-District Judge Pierre N. Leval, to whom the case was then assigned, approved the Consent Decree, making findings of fact and conclusions of law that included the following:

Plaintiffs' evidence supports their allegations that during specified periods of time the Housing Authority selected and assigned applicants for public housing, and tenants requesting transfers, to certain housing projects using methods that resulted in unlawful discrimination against Blacks and Hispanics. These methods included (1) the intermittent use of codes denoting housing projects to which only white families could be assigned; (2) the use of zip code and other geographic restrictions on admission to projects; (3) the use of racial goals or targets when new projects were "rented up" and on an ongoing basis thereafter; and (4) the assignment of families to projects where vacancies were not expected to arise.

Davis I, 1992 WL 420923, at *2. The Consent Decree

permanently enjoined [NYCHA] from engaging in any act or practice which denies equal access to its housing ... on the basis of race, color, or national origin, including[] adopting and implementing any tenant application, selection, assignment, and transfer plan, or any such policy or process, which gives preference to Applicants or tenants on the basis of race, color, or national origin.

Consent Decree ¶ 4(a). Other provisions permanently enjoined NYCHA from, inter alia, basing denials of transfers on racial considerations, see id. ¶ 4(b), making statements indicating a preference or limitation based on race, see id. ¶ 4(c), and falsely representing, because of an applicant's race, that certain projects were not anticipating vacancies when in fact such vacancies were anticipated, see id. ¶ 4(d). Although parts of the Decree were to be dissolved 8½ years after its date of entry, the provision for such dissolution expressly excluded "the permanent injunctive provisions." Id. ¶ 50.

As part of the injunctive relief granted, the Consent Decree also required NYCHA to implement a new three-stage tenant selection and assignment plan ("TSAP") that substantially revised the Authority's prior procedures for granting applications for public housing. After explicitly incorporating the TSAP by reference, the Decree stated that "[t]he TSAP will be implemented by the Housing Authority to prevent any unlawful discrimination on the basis of race, color, or national origin, in compliance with the Housing Authority's obligations therewith under Title VI, the Fair Housing Act and the implementing regulations and requirements of" the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development ("HUD"). Consent Decree ¶ 5. HUD "approved the TSAP for a five-year period as meeting the requirements of," inter alia, HUD's "regulations governing non-discrimination on the basis of race, color, or national origin." Consent Decree page 5, ¶ WHEREAS.

In the TSAP, NYCHA recognizes "federal" preferences for certain categories of applicants, as required by certain federal laws, and employs certain of its own preferences ("local preferences"). In the first stage of the TSAP, applicants are chosen from the overall applicant pool for interviews as to their eligibility for public housing. In the second stage, those interviewed who are found eligible are assigned to waiting lists for vacancies and are divided into three "Tiers." Tier III families have the highest incomes; Tier I families have the lowest. In the final stage of the TSAP, NYCHA attempts to allocate 25% of the vacancies to Tier III and to divide the remaining 75% evenly between Tiers I and II. Under the original TSAP's local preferences, priority is given to families on the basis of housing need.

[n]o Applicant will be barred or disqualified from any Project tenanted under the TSAP because of any minimum income requirements that result in discrimination on the basis of race, color, or national origin in violation of Title VI or the Fair Housing Act; provided, however, that consistent with HUD's general occupancy standards, the Housing Authority may seek to achieve a tenant body in each Project composed of families with a broad range of incomes, generally representative of the range of incomes and rent-paying abilities of lower income families in its geographic operating area to the extent permitted under 42 U.S.C. § 1437d(c)(4)(A)(iv), 24 C.F.R. § 960.205, and 24 C.F.R. Part 913.... If any new minimum income requirements are added to existing [conventional housing projects administered by NYCHA], plaintiffs shall have the right to challenge such a change during the five-year period [after full implementation of the TSAP] or thereafter....

Consent Decree ¶ 8.

NYCHA was required to have the TSAP fully implemented within one year after entry of the Decree. See id. ¶ 6(a). If, during the five-year period after full implementation of the TSAP, NYCHA proposed to modify any provision of the TSAP, it was to give at least 60 days' notice to plaintiffs, who were given "the right ... to move the court to enjoin the proposed modification as inconsistent with the terms of th[e] Consent Decree." Id. ¶ 6(b). The Decree also provided that for three years following that five-year period, plaintiffs were allowed to ask the district court to "modify or otherwise enjoin any aspect of any TSAP implemented by the Housing Authority on the ground that it violates the Fair Housing Act, Title VI and/or HUD implementing regulations." Id. ¶ 6(c).

B. NYCHA's Proposed Working-Family Preference (Davis II-IV)

In 1995, NYCHA sought to modify the local preferences recognized under the TSAP. To the extent material here, it proposed to introduce a working-family preference ("WFP"), altering the factors determining whether an applicant for public housing is even granted an interview. Under the WFP, federal preference holders who are working or disabled would receive a priority over those who are not; as to local preferences, Tier III families and Tier II families would receive priority, in that order; thereafter, Tier I applicants who are working or are disabled would be given priority, but other Tier I applicants would have no priority. See Davis v. New York City Housing Authority, 1997 WL 407250, at *4 (S.D.N.Y. July 18, 1997) ("Davis II"). The proposed WFP would eliminate applicant housing need as a local priority concern and instead give preference to families who can pay the most. NYCHA's goals in proposing this change are to increase the number of working families in public housing and increase income integration in public housing, in order to promote financial and social stability in such housing. See id. at *14.

Plaintiffs opposed NYCHA's proposed changes and moved before Judge Sweet, to whom the case had been reassigned, for an injunction. While conceding that NYCHA's interest in financial stability was legitimate, plaintiffs contended, supported by affidavits from their expert Dr. Leonard Cupingood, that the WFP would favor the admission of white families and thereby have the effect of perpetuating racial segregation. Plaintiffs suggested that the WFP be modified so that, while continuing to give the lowest preference to Tier I (i.e., lowest-income) families, NYCHA would give all Tier I applicants equal preference. Under plaintiffs' proposed alternative, Tier I families would continue to rank below Tier II and Tier III families; and thus, because Tier II and III families by definition have higher incomes than Tier I families, the number of rentals to higher-income families would still increase; but desegregation of the housing projects would be less adversely affected. NYCHA conceded that plaintiffs' suggested alternative might increase income integration but rejected it, stating that it would frustrate the goal of increasing the proportion of rentals to working families. See Davis II, 1997 WL 407250, at *15.

The district court noted the legitimacy of NYCHA's concerns and goals and stated that there was no dispute that an increase in the proportion of tenants with higher incomes was needed in order to safeguard the projects' stability:

Historically, public housing applicants in the lowest income categories accounted for approximately 1/3 of all NYCHA rentals. Since 1990, however, an increase in homeless families applying for housing has resulted in a significant increase in the number of rentals to the lowest income applicants. By 1995, these lowest income applicants accounted for 77.6% of new admissions. NYCHA states, and plaintiffs do not dispute, that unless a higher proportion of applicants with higher incomes receive rentals, the stability of the projects will be jeopardized.

Id. at *4. The court also noted that NYCHA had submitted its proposed WFP, along with another proposed modification called "Project Choice," to HUD for approval. Although HUD approved Project Choice as "`not likely to affect the racial identifiability of developments in New York City,'" Davis II, 1997 WL 407250, at *5 (quoting HUD letter to NYCHA dated October 24, 1996), HUD's response to the proposed WFP, in contrast, was as follows:

"HUD does not approve local preferences, and thus NYCHA may create these local preferences, so long as notice and comment requirements are met. However, NYCHA should be mindful of the injunctive relief provided for by the Davis consent decree and its responsibilities under civil rights statutes."

Davis II, 1997 WL 407250, at *5 (quoting HUD letter to NYCHA dated July 31, 1996) (emphasis ours).

The district court proceeded to consider the likely effects of the WFP on NYCHA's performance of its obligations under the Decree. Noting that in 1995, under the TSAP's scheme of priorities, only some 15% of all applicants for public housing even reached the stage of being granted interviews, see Davis II, 1997 WL 407250, at *3, the court found that implementation of the WFP would significantly change

the racial composition of the top 15% of applicants, who are those likely to be called for interviews. Under the current TSAP, only 7.2% of the top 15% of applicants are white. If the new Working Family Preference were implemented, there would be a statistically significant increase in the percentage of white families in the top 15% of the list of applicants. These conclusions are not disputed by NYCHA.

Id. at *5. The court noted further that Dr. Cupingood had concluded that if the WFP were implemented at the 11 projects that as of June 1996 remained more than 50% white, the process of desegregation would be significantly slowed at three of the projects, completely stopped at four projects, and indeed reversed at four projects. See id.

The court noted, however, that the WFP's desegregative effects could easily be lessened:

It also appears that NYCHA could eliminate the objectionable perpetuation of discrimination by making revisions to their plan that are even less drastic than those proposed by plaintiffs. The Working Family Preference could be instituted in essentially the proposed form, provided white applicants selected under the preference are not placed in projects in which whites are over-represented relative to the applicant pool. The extent to which such a modification would be administratively feasible or desirable is, of course, a question for NYCHA.

Id. at *15 (emphases added).

Accepting the projections made by Dr. Cupingood, the district court found that plaintiffs were likely to succeed on the merits of their WFP challenge with respect to the housing projects whose tenant populations remained predominantly white. The court entered a preliminary injunction prohibiting implementation of the WFP at all 322 NYCHA projects, but it invited NYCHA to offer suggestions for modifications that would limit the injunction to the disproportionately white projects. See id. at *18.

Thereafter, the parties "agree[d] that the WFP considered in Davis [II] w[ould] not perpetuate past discrimination at any of the NYCHA projects other than the 21 projects where greater than 30% of the apartments are rented to whites (the `Disproportionate Projects')," Davis v. New York City Housing Authority, 1997 WL 711360, at *4 (S.D.N.Y. Nov. 13, 1997, as amended Nov. 20, 1997) ("Davis III"), and "agree[d] that the WFP should go forward for the non-Disproportionate Projects," id. at *5. Accordingly, in Davis III, the court narrowed its prior order and enjoined use of the WFP at only those 21 housing projects where white families then occupied more than 30% of the apartments.

NYCHA appealed. This Court was unable to resolve the merits of the appeal, however, as we concluded that the district court had not provided an adequate explanation for finding that plaintiffs would likely succeed in showing that the WFP would perpetuate segregation at the projects to which the injunction applied. See Davis v. New York City Housing Authority, 166 F.3d 432, 437 (2d Cir.1999) ("Davis IV"). We stated that although the opinions in Davis II and Davis III were

not entirely devoid of detail, Judge Sweet failed to adequately explain the subsidiary facts and methodology underlying the ultimate finding. For instance, Judge Sweet refers to "existing trends demonstrat[ing] that many of the[] additional white families [admitted under the proposed modification] will be concentrated in predominantly white developments," but does not discuss or attempt to explain these trends or the data reflecting them. He also fails to address the time period during which the purported impact of the proposed TSAP was assessed and/or how future "trends" might affect application of the TSAP to developments that are not currently, but subsequently become, predominantly white. Further, while he focuses on the racial imbalance the proposed TSAP will cause at specific developments within the NYCHA system, he does not identify them by name or state the number, fraction or percentage of additional white families who will be admitted to each of the 21 developments as a result of the proposed TSAP.

Davis IV, 166 F.3d at 436 (footnotes omitted). We also noted that Dr. Cupingood "d[id] not cite to any precise numerical data underlying his opinion." Id. at 437.

Accordingly, while leaving the preliminary injunction undisturbed, we remanded for the district court to address these matters, stating that "[t]he proper standard to be applied on remand is whether the proposed use of the working family preference will significantly perpetuate segregation at the relevant NYCHA developments." Id. at 438 (emphasis in original).

C. The WFP as Significantly Perpetuating Segregation (Davis V)

Following the remand in Davis IV, the district court conducted a hearing, received additional evidence and arguments, and addressed, both broadly and in considerable detail, (1) whether there is a basis on which to conclude that there is segregation to be dealt with under the Consent Decree, and (2) whether the WFP would significantly perpetuate segregation. In an opinion dated August 11, 1999, the court rendered a final decision, answering both questions in the affirmative and concluding that plaintiffs were entitled to a permanent injunction prohibiting NYCHA from implementing the WFP at 20 housing projects. See Davis v. New York City Housing Authority, 60 F.Supp.2d 220 (S.D.N.Y.1999) ("Davis V").

First, as to the existence of segregation, the court ruled that, for purposes of this litigation, it is appropriate to deem a project segregated if white families occupy more than 30% of its apartments. It pointed out that

throughout this litigation projects have been deemed "disproportionate" or "predominantly white" if more than 30 percent of the parties residing there are white. See, e.g., Davis II, 1997 WL 407250 at *12.

Davis V, 60 F.Supp.2d at 231 (footnote omitted). The court noted that this benchmark was reflected in the TSAP, which was incorporated by reference into the Consent Decree. See, e.g., id. at 232 n. 9 ("[T]he TSAP identifies housing projects that are 30 percent white as infected by past segregation."). The TSAP contains a "Borrowing Provision" that can be used by a housing project that has more vacancies than willing applicants. Such a project is allowed to "borrow[]" applications from another project, id. at 231; but "`if the borrowing project's tenant body is more than 30% white, [the NYCHA decisionmaker] shall not select a project whose tenant body is also more than 30% white,'" id. at 232 (quoting TSAP at 29). The court pointed out that the 30% benchmark was

not, as NYCHA urges, an arbitrary number, but a negotiated figure that implies that the parties and the Court believed that a project was disproportionately white if more than 30 percent of its families are white.... An examination of Exhibit A to the Consent Decree, a list of projects where it was alleged that discriminatory practices occurred in statistically significant amounts, reveals that during the time in question most of these projects were at least 30 percent white.

Davis V, 60 F.Supp.2d at 232. Further, the court noted that the injunctive relief ordered was necessarily premised on a finding that a white tenant population above the 30% level constituted segregation:

The TSAP must be read as in harmony with existing law.... Under existing law, borrowing of applications could not have been prohibited at projects more than 30 percent white (without regard for claimant relief) unless those projects were still tainted by past segregation.... [R]emedies containing race-conscious relief "must be substantially related to the objective of eliminating the alleged instance of discrimination,... and must not unnecessarily trammel the interests of affected third parties." Kirkland v. New York State Dept. of Correctional Serv., 711 F.2d 1117, 1132 (2d Cir.1983). Thus, had there been no finding that housing projects that are greater than 30 percent white were affected by past segregation, the Borrowing Provision would be unlawful.

Davis V, 60 F.Supp.2d at 232. Accordingly, having previously "held that `[u]nder the TSAP, a project is considered disproportionately white if more than 30 percent of its families are white,'" the court concluded that "30 percent will continue to be employed as a measure to identify segregation in this case." Davis V, 60 F.Supp.2d at 232 (quoting Davis II, 1997 WL 407250 at *12).

Second, as to the impacts of the WFP on the desegregation of the disproportionately white projects, the district court, largely crediting the analysis of Dr. Cupingood, made extensive findings. The court noted that, in predicting the effects of the WFP on the racial mix of those likely to move into public housing projects ("move-ins"), Dr. Cupingood relied on data for the period 1991-1994 because 1991 is "the first year that is free of distortion caused by NYCHA's own discrimination," and 1994 is the "last year that is free of distortion [caused] by" the initial implementation of the Consent Decree remedies, to wit, the "Davis move-ins." Davis V, 60 F.Supp.2d at 226. Dr. Cupingood relied on NYCHA's records of move-ins and move-outs by race for each project, and he proceeded on the assumption that families of each race will make decisions about which projects to choose in the same manner, and with the same probabilities, as families of that race have done in the past. The court concluded that "[w]hile projections about the future, are by definition, subject to some uncertainty, Dr. Cupingood has taken reasonable steps, such as the use of historical averages, to minimize the impact of possible uncertainties." Id. at 239 n. 17.

The court credited Dr. Cupingood's view that the WFP would have significant impacts on the disproportionately white projects, either by increasing the percentage of a project's white population or by detrimentally affecting the degree or timing of the project's desegregation. The Davis V opinion included tables showing, for each disproportionately white project, inter alia, "Race Distribution of 1995 Rentals Under Original TSAP and WFP" (Table 1); "Effect of WFP at Disproportionate Projects After Five Years Assuming Historical [T]urnover by Race" (Table 3); "Relative Percentage Reduction in Number of White Families [D]ue to WFP After Five [Y]ears Assuming Historical Turnover by Race" (Table 4); "Change in Percentage White Occupancy At Disproportionate Projects After Five Years Assuming Historical Turnover by Race" (Table 5); "Effect of WFP at Disproportionate Projects After Five Years Assuming Historical Turnover by Race" (Table 7), and "[same] After Ten Years" (Table 6). See Davis V, 60 F.Supp.2d at 225-31.

In discussing the anticipated percentages of apartments that would be occupied by white families at each Disproportionate Project after five years, with and without the WFP, the court noted that,

[a]ssuming historical turnover by race, after five years under the WFP, the percentage of white families at Middletown Plaza would rise from 51.85 to 60.1% (instead of falling to 49.4%). At the remaining Disproportionate Projects, white occupancy percentages would either stabilize or fall more slowly under the WFP than under the original TSAP. For example, at Cassidy Lafayette, after five years the percentage of white families in occupancy would inch down from 53.6% to 50.4% (instead of falling to 42.4%).

Id. at 228-29. These figures were reflected in Table 5:

                               Table 5
               Change in Percentage White Occupancy At
             Disproportionate Projects After Five Years
                 Assuming Historical Turnover by Race

                     Initial           5 Years after Davis Move-Ins
Project Name         % White        Original TSAP                WFP

Bay View              34.5%             22.9%                  24.7%
Berry                 56.2%             45.0%                  50.4%
Cassidy-Lafayette     53.6%             42.4%                  50.4%
Forest Hills          51.7%             41.3%                  44.4%
Glenwood              30.0%             18.1%                  18.9%
Haber                 53.0%             39.6%                  46.4%
Holmes Towers         26.6%             18.6%                  21.8%
Independence             9% [sic]       63.9%                  64.8%
Isaacs                33.1%             24.8%                  27.9%
Middletown Plaza      51.8%             49.4%                  60.1%
New Lane              73.0%             64.8%                  71.1%
Nostrand              41.9%             30.0%                  32.9%
Pelham Parkway        31.8%             22.1%                  23.5%
Pomonok               41.5%             33.3%                  36.5%
Robbins Plaza         53.4%             42.6%                  52.0%
Sheepshead Bay        35.2%             24.0%                  26.8%
South Beach           53.1%             41.6%                  47.6%
Straus                28.5%             27.4% [sic]            20.9%
Taylor-Wythe          54.4%             51.0%                  52.1%
Todt Hill             46.7%             35.7%                  39.7%
Williams              61.6%             57.5%                  58.2%

Davis V, 60 F.Supp.2d at 229; see also id. at 227, Table 3 (at Independence, 493 of 715 apartments were initially occupied by white families, a percentage of 68.95; at Straus, under the original TSAP five years after the Davis move-ins, white families would occupy 48 of 263 apartments, a percentage of 18.3); id. at 233, Table 8 (as of June 1998, before Davis move-ins, Holmes Towers and Straus were above the 30% level, at 30.6% and 30.4%, respectively). The court noted that Table 6 showed that

[s]imilar trends exist after ten years, except that at Disproportionate Projects where desegregation would not essentially stop, the magnitude of the impact of the WFP would generally become larger. For example, at Middletown Plaza, where segregation would increase under the WFP, the white population would climb to 108 instead of falling to 81. At Berry Houses, where desegregation would be significantly slowed, the white population would fall to 231 instead of 186. In the aggregate, after ten years under the WFP (again assuming historical turnover by race), the Disproportionate Projects would be occupied by 722 more white families than would have resided in those projects in the absence of the WFP.

Davis V, 60 F.Supp.2d at 229.

NYCHA, proffering the views of its own expert Dr. David Peterson, argued that Dr. Cupingood's analysis was flawed because it was based on the assumption that, in the absence of the Consent Decree's injunction, the percentage of white families admitted to NYCHA's public housing in 1998 would have risen from 4.2% to 9.9%. The Authority contended that the percentage admitted would have risen only to 6.48%. However, the district court found that there were substantial flaws in Dr. Peterson's methodology:

[I]n addition to a number of other errors, Dr. Peterson did not account for the fact that several thousand families who moved into NYCHA housing during 1998 were selected for interviews and/or certified to project waiting lists before the WFP went into operation. Because families selected under the old TSAP are still working their way through the "pipeline," the white admission rate in 1998 was significantly lower than would have occurred if all families had been selected for interviews and certified pursuant to the WFP. Moreover, Dr. Peterson['s] conclusion is based on an under-representation of 1998 move-ins. Significantly, even accepting Dr. Peterson's methodology, and adjusting only for the undercount of families to the 21 projects, one obtains a corrected figure of 8.53 percent white among families who were placed in 1998 and were "allegedly untainted by the Pipeline Effect" (Cupingood Sixth Aff. ¶ 9).

Davis V, 60 F.Supp.2d at 239 n. 16. Accordingly, the court rejected Dr. Peterson's analysis and credited that of Dr. Cupingood.

The court also rejected NYCHA's contention "that so long as the white occupancy rates would decline under the WFP, regardless of the rate of decline, then the WFP cannot be said to perpetuate segregation." Id. at 238. The court noted that to "`perpetuate' means to extend in time," id. (other internal quotation marks omitted), and that that is precisely the effect that the WFP will have. Although at the outset of housing discrimination litigation "the adverse impact of an applicant selection process ... is determined by whether minority applicants are chosen at a rate lower than their proportional representation in the overall applicant pool," once remedies for segregation have been ordered and the defendant proposes to change its method of compliance "[t]he query ... is not whether the [change] would have an adverse impact on minority applicants, but whether it will significantly perpetuate segregation." Davis V, 60 F.Supp.2d at 237 n. 14 (emphasis omitted).

Where a court-ordered plan intended to eradicate past segregation is in effect, and where, as here, a proposed change to the plan is alleged to perpetuate past segregation, the Supreme Court has compared the results under the proposed plan with those under the original, court-ordered plan.

. . . .

Accordingly, in evaluating whether the WFP significantly perpetuates segregation, the relevant comparison will be the desegregation that would be achieved under the original TSAP with the projected effect of the WFP.

....

The relevant inquiry here is not whether desegregation will occur eventually, but whether the WFP will significantly delay desegregation at the Disproportionate Projects. See Monroe v. Board of Commissioners, 391 U.S. 450, 459, 88 S.Ct. 1700, 20 L.Ed.2d 733 (1968) ("if it cannot be shown that such a plan will further rather than delay conversion to a unitary, nonracial, nondiscriminatory school system, it must be held unacceptable."); Wright [v. Council of the City of Emporia], 407 U.S. [451,] 460, 92 S.Ct. 2196, 33 L.Ed.2d 51 [(1972)] ("if the proposal would impede the dismantling of the dual system, then the district court ... may enjoin it from being carried out").

Davis V, 60 F.Supp.2d at 237-38 (emphasis in original).

The district court concluded that the WFP would significantly impede desegregation at NYCHA's 20 disproportionately white projects, see Davis V, 60 F.Supp.2d at 231 n. 7 (of the 21 projects covered by the preliminary injunction pursuant to Davis III, Glenwood was omitted because prior to June 1998 it had fallen "below the 30% threshold"). The court reached this conclusion because the WFP will "more than double white admission rates," and "because existing trends demonstrate that many of these additional white families will be concentrated in predominantly white developments." Davis V, 60 F.Supp.2d at 238-39 (internal quotation marks omitted). It found these effects to have both "[s]tatistical significance," which "measures whether a particular phenomenon is the cause of a specific set of effects," and "[l]egal significance," which "measures whether, assuming the phenomenon was the cause of those effects, those effects have any legal import." Id. at 239. As to statistical significance,